If you’ve at least been on twitter or on various political sites today, you will no doubt by now have read about the latest YouGov poll that sees Ken moving ahead of Boris by the narrowest of margins. Now anyone would think that such a shift in opinion would have Boris quaking in his boots and I’m sure he is worried about losing his job this May, but I have a feeling that a loss would not be all doom and gloom for Boris. Politically speaking anyway.
In the event of a Hung Parliament, in 2015, where the Conservatives end up behind Labour on vote share and seat share I imagine it is likely that David Cameron would step aside. I do not see him as a figure who would grasp on to power at all costs in the way Gordon Brown was willing to in 2010. I imagine he would be more than happy to protect a record that has proved popular amongst Conservatives, but not so much amongst the left-wing press and the anti-Tory brigade (I mean would he have ever managed to have pleased them?). In September 2011, Toby Young raised a very good point on this very issue that if Cameron had lost then the likelihood of Osborne becoming leader would be scuppered by the fact that he would also be very much accountable for the Tory defeat. This, I believe, provides a perfect opportunity for Boris. If he loses in May then I imagine it would take a lot to keep him from the Political scene and a likely stand in 2015 for Parliament would be a surprise to no one. He is loved by his party and has proved popular with many Londoners, which is why it has been so hard for Ken to really mount any sort of campaign against him. I think Boris, himself, feels he is destined to Govern this country and that to rule him out in doing so would be very foolish.
So what can we expect come May? If Boris wins he keeps his job and leads us into the Olympics and hopefully more prosperous times for London (or so they’d hope). If he loses? Then there is a bloody good chance his leadership campaign begins day one after his defeat. Watch this space. The Boris bike route may well change course and I imagine its headed straight for Number 10.